Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73326.797201 77497.174891 81672.465138 86163.304440 90853.906952 95605.544623 100779.836364
2025-12-28 67012.944391 73399.840787 79977.084634 87247.213430 95048.567000 103159.130179 112219.166526
2026-01-04 62464.961711 70383.673620 78721.577030 88136.108530 98451.115077 109389.350711 121845.699241
2026-01-11 58791.421734 67845.883590 77559.104957 88722.501701 101165.534249 114575.760634 130087.798438
2026-01-18 55509.430519 65427.396000 76243.269039 88868.044786 103151.443655 118761.552553 137061.756118
2026-01-25 52771.670243 63402.285009 75168.401989 89094.258010 105060.182817 122725.918981 143681.390239
2026-02-01 50204.388482 61401.650240 73966.423035 89028.967634 106509.414579 126069.812475 149521.915671
2026-02-08 48387.697122 60153.824710 73523.761967 89738.898469 108764.948221 130271.409723 156304.475424
2026-02-15 46343.339652 58527.771607 72541.400581 89727.444773 110105.050253 133361.449927 161768.158937
2026-02-22 45180.059389 57883.172068 72654.489855 90952.765545 112854.412493 138065.854535 169109.533281
2026-03-01 43899.291141 57029.662783 72460.507369 91761.536748 115072.719188 142127.596386 175697.168601
2026-03-08 42257.087873 55663.042179 71584.808841 91691.598821 116193.008812 144859.286501 180695.965957
2026-03-15 40855.312328 54555.468763 70995.800517 91952.552344 117711.586127 148085.370546 186332.497899
2026-03-22 40110.891294 54237.162161 71350.373058 93351.987149 120609.002034 152977.309819 194003.450992
2026-03-29 39224.521148 53699.983309 71400.982768 94350.017089 123000.581519 157259.334821 200958.674290
2026-04-05 38223.588995 52975.827814 71182.715446 94983.332400 124922.327623 160963.981092 207223.452725
2026-04-12 37063.093503 52002.959851 70612.474586 95140.248759 126226.033385 163898.698463 212548.153323
2026-04-19 36005.668346 51126.815936 70131.592706 95380.111602 127611.091463 166922.522236 217986.269437
2026-04-26 34869.867965 50109.057098 69433.985939 95311.236996 128581.654888 169418.127383 222769.363832
2026-05-03 34144.486612 49611.547880 69387.660155 96061.847926 130582.086974 173197.929210 229166.943647
2026-05-10 33136.332705 48701.450964 68773.323855 96049.747037 131587.729739 175720.479030 233993.837457
2026-05-17 32712.345010 48567.187780 69166.851768 97345.082075 134275.027903 180374.122208 241529.409331
2026-05-24 32132.601375 48199.550819 69234.484060 98199.968677 136387.959381 184306.019676 248173.669534